Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2525…b919 world 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$85,491 (+17%) realized +$92,709 · open −$7,218
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate60%56W / 37L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$3,342per market
Trades / day140.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$83,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$12,076
politics 13% +$84
other 6% −$5,375
economics 3% −$32
tech 2% +$237
finance 1% −$1,152
crypto 0% −$964
sports 0% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -17.6% -25.5% 50% 34% -8.6%
≤30d 93 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 34% -6.0%
≤90d 93 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 34% -6.0%
all 93 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 34% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 34% -6.0%
10% -22.7% 18% -15.0%
15% ← realistic here -30.1% 12% -23.2%
20% -37.0% 8% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$4,054) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$611 vs −$593 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$83,099
Realized+$92,709
Unrealized−$7,218
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses56 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions82
Markets (closed)93 / 153
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$3,342
Trades / day140.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 82 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 68¢ $6,070 $7,372 +$1,302 (+21%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? No 65¢ 65¢ $6,589 $6,576 −$13 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $4,625 $5,784 +$1,158 (+25%)
United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $4,758 $5,166 +$408 (+9%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 71¢ 77¢ $3,777 $4,118 +$341 (+9%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 35¢ 27¢ $5,086 $3,930 −$1,156 (-23%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 67¢ 73¢ $3,339 $3,659 +$319 (+10%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 68¢ 72¢ $3,298 $3,457 +$159 (+5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3,338 $3,442 +$104 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 78¢ $3,056 $3,371 +$315 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $2,212 $2,163 −$48 (-2%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 76¢ $1,741 $2,084 +$343 (+20%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,994 $2,008 +$14 (+1%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $1,876 $1,942 +$66 (+4%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 77¢ 48¢ $3,047 $1,880 −$1,167 (-38%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $1,552 $1,540 −$13 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 79¢ 100¢ $1,027 $1,297 +$270 (+26%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,264 $1,297 +$33 (+3%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 27¢ 22¢ $1,532 $1,227 −$305 (-20%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 87¢ 89¢ $1,176 $1,202 +$26 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $1,107 $1,199 +$93 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $1,066 $1,137 +$72 (+7%)
Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein? No 56¢ 98¢ $648 $1,125 +$477 (+74%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 85¢ $1,033 $1,088 +$55 (+5%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 46¢ 93¢ $517 $1,053 +$536 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will one person dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $969 −$41 -4%
Will four or more people dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 17 $17,521 +$1,207 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 17 $8,853 +$642 +7%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $142 +$6 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $633 −$538 -85%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $315 +$185 +59%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $371 −$10 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $5,348 −$216 -4%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $339 +$2 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $4,054 +$549 +14%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2,456 +$572 +23%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,779 +$215 +8%
Will "Oil" be in the headlines this week? Jun 15 $63 +$18 +28%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $360 −$360 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 15 $965 −$231 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $724 −$724 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $304 +$114 +37%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,435 +$913 +64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $2,083 +$954 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5,713 +$736 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $13,489 +$2,618 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8,088 +$2,207 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11,849 +$506 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $87 −$86 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $25,683 −$6,024 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $11,307 −$2,712 -24%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $660 +$281 +43%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $865 +$135 +16%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $17,179 +$2,078 +12%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $3,391 +$218 +6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $465 +$166 +36%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 11 $2,142 −$960 -45%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 11 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5,060 −$2,282 -45%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $8,554 −$807 -9%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5,708 +$4,298 +75%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $2,120 −$917 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 11 $1,601 −$258 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $371 +$32 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $1,274 −$14 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 09 $3,254 +$12 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 09 $1,232 −$78 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $488 −$488 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $616 −$157 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 58¢ $644 1m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 63¢ $420 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $228 24m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 31m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $345 39m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $186 41m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $130 41m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 19¢ $82 42m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $3 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $546 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $285 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $209 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $365 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $582 45m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 45m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 45m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $283 46m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $90 48m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 74¢ $4 52m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 74¢ $144 52m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 54m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $779 55m
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 84¢ $10 57m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 23¢ $3 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 23¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $2 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 84¢ $8 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 70¢ $700 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,784 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 23¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83,099.09 · official $83,101.45 (match) · 3500 history records