Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
25 0x2523…71ca sports 921 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$83 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%483W / 436L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$4
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$62
other 14% −$55
politics 5% −$8
world 1% +$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -21.4% -28.8% 50% 50% -5.7%
≤30d 21 -2.6% -11.9% 52% 52% +26.8%
≤90d 54 -17.1% -25.0% 41% 41% -19.6%
all 919 +1.4% -8.3% 53% 52% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 52% -7.1%
10% -17.0% 51% -16.0%
15% -25.1% 48% -24.1%
20% -32.4% 43% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses483 / 436
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)919 / 921
History coverage228d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $62 $25 −$37 (-59%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $24 $0 −$24 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 394 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $19 +$15 +79%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $12 +$8 +62%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $7 +$5 +65%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$3 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $8 +$4 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $19 +$53 +273%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 21 $10 −$1 -14%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $30 −$20 -67%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $5 +$6 +124%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Apr 19 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Capitals vs. Penguins Apr 12 $5 +$4 +75%
Spread: Pelicans (-11.5) Apr 12 $5 +$5 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5) Apr 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Warriors (-14.5) Apr 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Apr 07 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 06 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 06 $1 +$1 +104%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 06 $10 −$4 -40%
Spread: Hawks (-4.5) Apr 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 230.5 Apr 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Apr 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Clippers (-5.5) Apr 01 $5 +$4 +89%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) Mar 31 $5 +$5 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $35 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $19 14h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 39h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $8 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $5 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $5 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $5 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $5 6d
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $10 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 60¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 7d
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 8d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 93¢ $53 8d
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 89¢ $19 9d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 24¢ $19 55d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 12¢ $19 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.74 · official $25.74 (match) · 1570 history records