Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
25 0x2520…b197 crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$172 (-7%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%58W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days−$139
14 days−$102
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$119
crypto 34% −$92
weather 10% −$63
other 8% −$23
world 5% −$73
politics 1% +$27
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +261.7% +227.2% 43% 43% -37.6%
≤30d 15 +236.4% +204.4% 47% 40% -16.2%
≤90d 58 +66.0% +50.2% 48% 45% -15.5%
all 141 +35.4% +22.5% 41% 35% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.5% 35% -24.2%
10% +10.8% 31% -31.5%
15% +0.1% 28% -38.1%
20% -9.7% 23% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses58 / 83
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage173d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $203 −$156 -77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $50 −$29 -58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $160 +$12 +7%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $182 +$39 +22%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $137 +$40 +29%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -93%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $118 +$11 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $131 +$58 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 29 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 15 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 15 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 15 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $55 −$27 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 15 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 15 $60 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 20¢ $35 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 90¢ $162 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 13¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $32 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 33¢ $20 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 22¢ $1 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $170 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 93¢ $160 25h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 25h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $50 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $221 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 98¢ $130 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $52 32h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 10d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 10d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 76¢ $137 10d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 6¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0¢ $1 15d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 2 Winner SELL Entropy 100¢ $129 15d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 2 Winner BUY Entropy 90¢ $35 15d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 2 Winner BUY Entropy 90¢ $45 15d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 2 Winner BUY Entropy 90¢ $23 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 550 history records