Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x251f…13c4 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$9
other 18% −$2
politics 9% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 4% −$1
weather 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 0% -9.0%
all 44 -1.0% -10.4% 32% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -19.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage319d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $159 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $96 +$3 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $79 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $146 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $13 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on Aug Aug 10 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 78-79°F on August 6? Aug 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $10 $0 -3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 10 $72 +$1 +2%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 07 $64 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $71 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $3 $0 -6%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 05 $83 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $87 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $10 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $50 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $28 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $46 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $41 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $45 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $11 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $31 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $3 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $61 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $16 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $30 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $52 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $29 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $29 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 60¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.37 · official $87.03 (match) · 212 history records