Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x251a…29c4 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% $0
crypto 36% −$1
world 18% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 1 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 1 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
all 1 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -12.4%
10% -20.8% 0% -20.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -28.5%
20% -35.5% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 69¢ 67¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 2h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.09 · official $68.09 (match) · 5 history records