trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J | Jun 09 | $500 | +$61 | +12% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J | Jun 09 | $4,553 | +$1,003 | +22% |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? | Jun 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? | May 28 | $800 | +$511 | +64% |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M | May 28 | $1,200 | +$55 | +5% |
| Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? | May 22 | $400 | −$400 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 22 | $500 | +$1,208 | +242% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Apr 22 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Apr 08 | $200 | +$119 | +60% |
| Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? | Apr 08 | $10 | +$23 | +235% |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Apr 08 | $10 | +$41 | +406% |
| Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026? | Apr 05 | $110 | −$110 | -100% |
| Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $10 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $10 | $0 | -3% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $10 | −$9 | -86% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 01 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Mar 01 | $897 | +$1,337 | +149% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +17.2% | +6.0% | 100% | 100% | +9.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +20.6% | +9.1% | 71% | 57% | +16.8% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +29.3% | +17.0% | 56% | 50% | +14.0% |
| all | 18 | +28.8% | +16.5% | 56% | 50% | +18.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +16.5% | 50% | +18.3% |
| 10% | +5.4% | 33% | +7.0% |
| 15% | -4.8% | 33% | -3.3% |
| 20% | -14.1% | 33% | -12.8% |