Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2510…373f other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%40W / 68L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
sports 21% +$28
other 15% −$10
politics 8% −$12
economics 6% +$1
crypto 1% −$6
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 27 +1.1% -8.6% 44% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 40 -2.2% -11.5% 38% 5% -9.3%
all 108 -6.2% -15.1% 37% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -23.2% 1% -18.1%
15% -30.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses40 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage458d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $161 $161 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $161 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $175 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $56 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $96 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $202 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $177 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $21 +$4 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $598 −$6 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $328 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $166 +$4 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $257 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $449 −$5 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $841 +$5 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $437 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $175 −$6 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $751 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $326 +$7 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $84 +$4 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $143 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $160 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $128 −$3 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $403 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $195 −$4 -2%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $28 −$6 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $115 −$2 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $265 +$33 +12%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,108 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $18 −$3 -18%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $694 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $259 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00-1.04ºC in June 2025? Aug 10 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $18 −$1 -5%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -92%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $18 $0 +3%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 06 $31 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $161 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $44 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $44 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $98 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $98 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $99 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $161 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $169 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $175 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $97 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $97 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $55 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $56 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $56 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $96 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $176 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $177 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $152 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $176 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.18 · official $160.92 (match) · 476 history records