Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x250f…8c86 other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% +$34
other 22% −$25
sports 22% −$2
crypto 12% +$5
economics 7% −$5
world 5% −$2
culture 3% −$3
finance 2% −$2
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 71 +1.4% -8.3% 7% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 124 +0.6% -9.0% 12% 1% -9.6%
all 136 +0.6% -9.0% 14% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 117
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage99d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $52 +$1 +3%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $66 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $45 −$2 -4%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $142 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $168 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $55 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $64 −$1 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $116 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $43 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $108 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 02 $53 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $109 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $47 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $107 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $62 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 48m
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $52 14h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $42 14h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $43 22h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $60 23h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $61 31h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $66 31h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $66 39h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 40h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $53 46h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 98¢ $7 47h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $65 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 3d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.80 · official $9.80 (match) · 461 history records