Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
25 0x250a…dafa other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-1%) realized −$115 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate62%90W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$31
14 days−$25
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$6
world 7% −$123
sports 1% −$10
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 75% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 17 -0.5% -10.0% 82% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 93 -6.6% -15.5% 71% 4% -10.2%
all 145 -5.2% -14.2% 62% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 10% -10.2%
10% -22.4% 9% -18.8%
15% -29.9% 9% -26.6%
20% -36.8% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses90 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage375d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $249 $248 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $244 +$6 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $286 −$42 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $283 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $280 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $284 −$4 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $281 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $277 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $274 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $543 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $270 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $266 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $265 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $260 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $259 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $257 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $279 −$22 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $275 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $274 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $266 +$7 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $264 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $258 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $266 −$7 -3%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $255 +$13 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $252 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $242 +$10 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $241 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $239 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $237 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $245 −$8 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $244 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $240 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 04 $238 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $236 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $233 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $231 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $228 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 28 $227 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $245 −$18 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $240 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $239 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $235 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $234 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $234 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $230 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $223 +$7 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $218 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $215 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $249 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $250 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $244 45h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $244 46h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $286 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $286 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $283 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $280 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $280 9d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $284 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $284 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $281 11d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 11d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $90 11d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $277 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $274 14d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $274 15d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $273 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $273 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $270 17d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $270 17d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $270 18d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $270 18d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $266 19d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $265 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $265 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $260 24d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $260 24d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $259 25d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $259 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.61 · official $247.61 (match) · 344 history records