Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2509…e4db sports 1112 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 235d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30,760 (-5%) realized −$30,659 · open −$101
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%583W / 570L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$505per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$791est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28,769
7 days−$32,070
14 days−$32,070
30 days−$31,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$2,193
crypto 7% −$3,059
other 0% −$1,637
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -76.0% -78.3% 16% 13% -89.4%
≤30d 172 -35.8% -41.9% 37% 35% -78.0%
≤90d 475 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 40% -38.8%
all 1153 -11.5% -19.9% 51% 43% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 43% -14.3%
10% -27.6% 38% -22.5%
15% -34.6% 33% -30.0%
20% -41.0% 27% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$530) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$361 vs −$428 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30,659
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses583 / 570
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$791
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1153 / 1112
History coverage235d ⚠
Avg bet$505
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 53¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 55¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 475 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Astros vs. Rangers Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2025-08-23? Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Cardinals vs. Mariners Jun 18 $390 −$390 -100%
Brewers vs. Rangers Jun 18 $290 −$290 -100%
Reds vs. Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $157 −$157 -100%
Giants vs. Dodgers Jun 18 $243 −$243 -100%
Aces vs. Fever Jun 18 $450 −$450 -100%
Braves vs. Marlins Jun 18 $555 −$555 -100%
Yankees vs. Astros Jun 18 $350 −$350 -100%
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Jun 18 $654 −$654 -100%
Athletics vs. Mariners Jun 18 $310 −$310 -100%
Nets vs. Spurs Jun 18 $308 −$308 -100%
Spread: Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Pirates vs. Reds Jun 18 $237 −$237 -100%
Euro Basket: Turkey vs Greece Jun 18 $448 −$448 -100%
Nationals vs. Phillies Jun 18 $390 −$390 -100%
Fever vs. Valkyries Jun 18 $340 −$340 -100%
Dream vs. Sun Jun 18 $230 −$230 -100%
Cubs vs. Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $700 −$700 -100%
Cardinals vs. Brewers Jun 18 $304 −$304 -100%
US Open Final: Sinner vs. Alcaraz? Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Pirates vs. Orioles Jun 18 $252 −$252 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Jun 18 $512 −$512 -100%
Brewers vs. Padres Jun 18 $158 −$158 -100%
Guardians vs. Red Sox Jun 18 $490 −$490 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 18 $390 −$390 -100%
Mercury vs. Sun Jun 18 $560 −$560 -100%
Rockies vs. Padres Jun 18 $290 −$290 -100%
Mets vs. Tigers Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Euro Basket: Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Angels vs. Royals Jun 18 $556 −$556 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Jun 18 $8,261 −$8,261 -100%
Orioles vs. Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $146 −$146 -100%
Nationals vs. Yankees Jun 18 $123 −$123 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Jun 18 $1,518 −$1,518 -100%
Pacers vs. Grizzlies Jun 18 $1,201 −$1,201 -100%
Cubs vs. Reds Jun 18 $438 −$438 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 18 $5,432 −$5,432 -100%
Spread: Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 18 $800 −$800 -100%
Cardinals vs. Giants Jun 18 $304 −$304 -100%
Rangers vs. Guardians Jun 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Old Dominion vs. Indiana Jun 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 53¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 55¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $57 3h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Daniel Rincon 100¢ $1,156 3h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 88¢ $1,022 3h
Valencia vs. Barcelona SELL Barcelona 100¢ $854 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $100 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $17 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $52 3h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 71¢ $390 3h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 40¢ $36 4h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 40¢ $92 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $153 5h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 42¢ $183 6h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 39¢ $193 6h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $707 6h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 70¢ $500 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 3500 history records