Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2506…34e6 world 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2
other 15% +$4
politics 14% −$2
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 15 +66.9% +51.0% 53% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 16 +62.8% +47.3% 56% 6% -9.8%
all 44 +20.5% +9.0% 50% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -1.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -10.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -19.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage477d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $63 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $41 −$6 -13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $36 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $14 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Dec 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 18–25? Apr 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani Apr 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 22 $15 $0 -2%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 19 $2 −$1 -34%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Apr 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $20 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 28 $19 $0 -2%
Will Leicester win on 2025-02-27? Mar 20 $15 +$4 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 11m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $29 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $34 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $26 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $6 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $0 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $36 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $41 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $42 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $42 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $42 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $17 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $21 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $36 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 33¢ $14 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $14 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $30 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $30 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $13 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $25 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $35 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.47 · official $13.47 (match) · 156 history records