Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

25 0x2500…6a9a other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (261 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$211per market

Trades / day261.0pace

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-0.0%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	8	-0.0%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	8	-0.0%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
all	8	-0.0%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover261.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-9.6%	0%	-9.6%
10% ← realistic here	-18.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-26.1%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-33.4%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

— vs −$0 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$212

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 8

Open positions8

Markets (closed)8 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$211

Trades / day261.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	99¢	99¢	$31	$31	−$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	97¢	97¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	99¢	99¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	No	98¢	98¢	$30	$29	−$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	100¢	100¢	$29	$29	−$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	100¢	100¢	$29	$29	−$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	98¢	98¢	$23	$23	−$0 (-0%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$312	$0	-0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Jun 25	$858	$0	+0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$29	$0	-0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Jun 25	$1,219	−$1	-0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$94	$0	-0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$89	$0	-0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$29	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25?	Jun 25	$60	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$29	4m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$7	4m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$29	4m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$16	4m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$13	4m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$30	9m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	97¢	$30	9m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	97¢	$30	9m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee	BUY No	99¢	$30	13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee	SELL No	99¢	$30	15m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$30	16m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$30	16m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$11	20m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY No	100¢	$11	20m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$29	20m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$29	20m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$5	21m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$7	21m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$7	21m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY No	100¢	$12	21m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$29	22m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY No	100¢	$36	30m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$29	30m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee	BUY No	99¢	$30	30m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee	SELL No	99¢	$30	34m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$5	37m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY No	100¢	$12	37m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY No	100¢	$17	37m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$24	37m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY No	100¢	$5	37m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.63 · official $211.63 (match) · 261 history records