Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
24 0x24fd…1250 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL −$944 (-2%) realized −$743 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$662per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$744est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$33
14 days−$1,781
30 days−$1,997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$450
other 4% −$620
world 4% −$1,956
crypto 1% +$394
culture 0% −$54
politics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -52.8% -57.3% 14% 14% -7.4%
≤30d 55 +22.7% +11.0% 33% 29% -12.1%
≤90d 82 +41.2% +27.7% 44% 28% -10.8%
all 82 +41.2% +27.7% 44% 28% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.7% 28% -10.8%
10% +15.5% 23% -19.3%
15% +4.3% 21% -27.1%
20% -5.9% 17% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$986) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +65% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$299 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$487
Realized−$743
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$744
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage35d
Avg bet$662
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 36¢ 26¢ $688 $487 −$201 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $407 −$43 -11%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $653 +$399 +61%
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Jun 29 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$6 -53%
ITF Maanshan: Kuai Jiananxi vs Onyu Choi Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $108 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $76 +$16 +21%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,956 −$1,956 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $712 −$76 -11%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $250 −$243 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $770 +$188 +24%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $1,297 −$516 -40%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $867 −$139 -16%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $1,617 +$1,046 +65%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $1,053 +$459 +44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 +$1,009 +664%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$19 +19%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $1 $0 -53%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $458 −$448 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $212 −$207 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Jones/P Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $499 −$486 -97%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $533 −$37 -7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $694 −$159 -23%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $306 +$186 +61%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $707 −$690 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,530 −$1,267 -50%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $992 −$971 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $682 +$991 +145%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $72 +$1,093 +1519%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,196 −$160 -13%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $227 +$499 +220%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $986 +$184 +19%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $204 −$198 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2,216 +$36 +2%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $93 +$1,180 +1276%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $1,108 +$859 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$1 +2%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $313 −$305 -98%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $266 −$260 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $773 +$334 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $1,140 +$416 +36%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $1,636 −$315 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 36¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 36¢ $698 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $364 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $407 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1,051 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $649 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Yibing Wu 9¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Yibing Wu 11¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
ITF Maanshan: Kuai Jiananxi vs Onyu Choi BUY Kuai Jiananxi 2¢ $3 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys BUY Talia Gibson 4¢ $7 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $108 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 9d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $80 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $13 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $536 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 13d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $636 13d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $2 13d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $710 13d
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 7¢ $164 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.19 · official $487.19 (match) · 285 history records