Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x24fc…53f6 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$27 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$5
other 40% +$14
politics 8% +$6
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 0% -9.0%
all 36 +3.4% -6.5% 50% 8% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 8% -7.5%
10% -15.4% 8% -16.4%
15% -23.6% 8% -24.5%
20% -31.1% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.64 per $1 lost it wins $17.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage306d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 67¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $61 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $161 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $110 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $66 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $108 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $125 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $36 +$14 +37%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $1 $0 -11%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Heather Humphreys win by 0–5%? Oct 24 $1 $0 +6%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24? Oct 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 02 $39 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $62 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $62 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $60 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $48 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $13 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $4 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $56 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $18 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $35 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $2 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $50 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $18 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $68 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $66 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.15 · official $60.97 (match) · 150 history records