Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24fb…66b1 other 82 markets active 4d ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$199 (-4%) realized −$199 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate27%22W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$342
politics 8% −$31
crypto 6% +$50
economics 3% −$54
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 61 -4.6% -13.6% 23% 10% -10.7%
≤90d 61 -4.6% -13.6% 23% 10% -10.7%
all 82 -8.4% -17.1% 27% 12% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 12% -16.1%
10% -25.1% 7% -24.1%
15% -32.3% 6% -31.5%
20% -38.9% 4% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses22 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage622d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $77 −$4 -5%
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 13 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 13 $875 +$30 +3%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 10 $476 −$21 -4%
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on I Jun 10 $195 +$15 +8%
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? Jun 10 $189 −$17 -9%
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $132 +$15 +12%
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 10 $52 +$19 +35%
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $211 −$12 -6%
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? Jun 09 $242 +$61 +25%
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on I Jun 09 $113 −$22 -20%
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on I Jun 09 $182 −$29 -16%
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on I Jun 09 $282 −$25 -9%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 08 $11 −$1 -6%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 08 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 08 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 07 $257 −$8 -3%
Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1? Jun 06 $24 $0 -1%
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Jun 05 $95 −$5 -6%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 03 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Jun 03 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Jun 03 $4 −$1 -18%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 03 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Jun 03 $79 −$14 -17%
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 02 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 02 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 02 $34 −$2 -7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 01 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $7 −$2 -21%
Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 01 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 01 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 01 $6 $0 +3%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 01 $6 $0 -4%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 -2%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 −$1 -8%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IP Jun 01 $5 $0 -3%
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e May 31 $11 −$4 -38%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima May 31 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? May 31 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? May 31 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb May 31 $14 −$2 -15%
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election May 31 $12 −$1 -5%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.7M and 6.8M in April? May 31 $2 $0 -10%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.9M and 7.0M in April? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Juan Rey advance from the CA-37 primary election? May 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.0M and 7.1M in April? May 30 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $66 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 3d
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 3d
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 53¢ $15 3d
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 3d
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 3d
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP SELL Yes 13¢ $68 3d
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4d
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP SELL Yes 17¢ $86 4d
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 624 history records