Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24fa…1f01 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$5
other 15% $0
weather 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -10.6%
all 30 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage474d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 89¢ 91¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $46 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $61 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $86 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $17 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $41 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $51 −$6 -12%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Left Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislati May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 30? Mar 31 $18 $0 +2%
Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 29 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +4%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or below on March 10? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Will the unemployment rate for February be greater than or equal to 4. Mar 06 $16 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $41 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $45 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $46 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 46h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $17 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $9 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $46 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $46 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.86 · official $42.32 (match) · 83 history records