Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
24 0x24f9…6c3b other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$706 (-20%) realized −$706 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$7
other 38% −$217
sports 22% −$756
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% -33.9%
≤30d 13 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% -33.9%
≤90d 13 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% -33.9%
all 13 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 62% -33.9%
10% -23.4% 46% -40.3%
15% -30.8% 23% -46.0%
20% -37.5% 15% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$289 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$706
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $207 −$204 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $164 +$43 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $95 +$69 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $76 +$19 +24%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $40 +$37 +92%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $591 −$553 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $605 −$13 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $408 +$153 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $318 +$99 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $202 +$34 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $375 −$371 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 49¢ $207 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 98¢ $207 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 77¢ $164 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $95 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $76 3d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 96¢ $76 3d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 49¢ $40 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 4¢ $38 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 59¢ $591 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 65¢ $591 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $605 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $328 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $375 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records