trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 33% | 0% | -7.4% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -6.9% | -15.8% | 58% | 17% | -5.7% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -6.9% | -15.8% | 58% | 17% | -5.7% |
| all | 24 | -7.1% | -16.0% | 67% | 8% | -6.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.0% | 8% | -6.4% |
| 10% | -24.0% | 0% | -15.4% |
| 15% | -31.4% | 0% | -23.6% |
| 20% | -38.1% | 0% | -31.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $3 | $0 | -13% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $52 | +$3 | +6% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 27 | $45 | +$2 | +5% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 27 | $21 | +$4 | +17% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 26 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $4 | −$1 | -13% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $30 | −$1 | -5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 23 | $38 | +$5 | +12% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 27 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 22 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| India wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? | Mar 17 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? | Mar 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? | Mar 13 | $4 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 12 | $12 | $0 | +0% |