Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24f6…7ce9 sports 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,831 (-27%) realized −$2,830 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%102W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$69
14 days−$333
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$2,019
finance 18% −$564
crypto 12% −$512
other 7% −$130
politics 3% +$57
world 2% +$178
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +77.9% +60.9% 47% 47% -31.2%
≤30d 45 -3.9% -13.1% 36% 36% -48.3%
≤90d 130 +3.6% -6.3% 34% 34% -43.7%
all 271 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 35% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 35% -35.3%
10% -20.9% 35% -41.5%
15% -28.5% 32% -47.2%
20% -35.6% 28% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$39 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$2,830
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses102 / 169
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions3
Markets (closed)271 / 274
History coverage456d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $61 −$61 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $6 +$4 +67%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $13 +$17 +135%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $62 +$44 +70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $17 +$7 +44%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 +$9 +1438%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$17 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$10 -46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $25 −$14 -55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 +$6 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +60%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1? Jun 16 $22 +$60 +270%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Jun 02 $24 +$11 +47%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles May 10 $24 +$26 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 09 $17 +$33 +188%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 08 $23 +$27 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 29 $12 +$13 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 28 $17 +$55 +318%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 33¢ $3 49m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 57¢ $8 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 57¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 72¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 85¢ $8 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $21 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 42¢ $8 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 43¢ $4 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 59¢ $6 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $4 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 6d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.64 · official $23.65 (match) · 2725 history records