Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24f5…98d2 crypto 443 markets active 3h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (150 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14,040 (+27%) realized +$14,040 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%207W / 588L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day150.2pace
Fees−$487est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$273
crypto 47% +$2,890
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (150 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 562 -67.0% -70.2% 15% 14% -80.6%
≤30d 795 -45.3% -50.5% 26% 25% -54.8%
≤90d 795 -45.3% -50.5% 26% 25% -54.8%
all 795 -45.3% -50.5% 26% 25% -54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.5% 25% -54.8%
10% ← realistic here -55.2% 21% -59.1%
15% -59.5% 18% -63.0%
20% -63.5% 15% -66.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -97% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$113 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14,040
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses207 / 588
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$487
Open positions0
Markets (closed)795 / 443
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$118
Trades / day150.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 795 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $256 −$256 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$115 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$8 -4890%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $662 −$662 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$39 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$22 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$28 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $132 −$127 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $521 −$521 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$5 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $366 −$371 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $218 −$230 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $369 −$318 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$60 -108%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Jun 17 $0 −$1 -223%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$23 -103%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $822 −$833 -101%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $206 −$210 -102%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $404 −$404 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $370 −$372 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$28 -119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 8¢ $1 9h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 86¢ $8 9h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 8¢ $2 9h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 86¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $32 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $8 12h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 35¢ $2 17h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $3 17h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 42¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $29 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records