Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
24 0x24f3…c431 other 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$27
politics 15% −$4
economics 7% −$2
sports 6% +$2
culture 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 113 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 7% -9.7%
all 114 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 7% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 7% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 103
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage91d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $202 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $385 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $405 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $371 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $394 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $409 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $200 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $205 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $395 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $350 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $190 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $188 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $194 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $189 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $196 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $412 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $422 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 18 $199 −$6 -3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $405 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 19m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $3 3h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 19h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 25h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 47h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $4 3d
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $118 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $42 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 16d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.85 · official $120.85 (match) · 314 history records