Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
24 0x24ee…4e60 other 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$321 (+20%) realized +$373 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%24W / 53L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$326
14 days+$346
30 days+$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$161
sports 28% +$130
crypto 11% −$40
politics 2% −$33
world 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +34.4% +21.6% 32% 32% +17.3%
≤30d 64 +19.6% +8.2% 30% 30% +14.6%
≤90d 77 +11.6% +1.0% 31% 31% +8.3%
all 77 +11.6% +1.0% 31% 31% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 31% +8.3%
10% -8.7% 30% -2.0%
15% -17.5% 27% -11.5%
20% -25.6% 26% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$15 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$373
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses24 / 53
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)77 / 88
History coverage48d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $39 $27 −$12 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 38¢ 15¢ $36 $14 −$22 (-61%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 14¢ $23 $12 −$11 (-48%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $6 +$2 (+39%)
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? No 27¢ 16¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $71 +$134 +188%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $19 −$16 -85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -75%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 +$49 +197%
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $9 −$7 -77%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Marc-Andrea H Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$26 +172%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $82 −$81 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +26%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 +$92 +596%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$69 +262%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $11 +$67 +596%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 17 $9 +$15 +163%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$71 +473%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $89 +$55 +62%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 +$121 +982%
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$2 -14%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $9 +$66 +711%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 22m
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 38¢ $37 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $49 7h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $71 7h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $3 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 24h
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $1 26h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes $7 27h
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $4 29h
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? SELL Yes $2 29h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $2 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 34h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 TOUR Championship? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 34h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Marc-Andrea H BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 27¢ $10 34h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide BUY Facundo Acosta 59¢ $20 34h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $25 36h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 36h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 47h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 47h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 47h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $82 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $15 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 2d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.84 · official $111.98 · 134 history records