Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24eb…75ee sports 292 markets active 6h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,873 (-10%) realized −$5,836 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%123W / 168L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days−$64
14 days−$59
30 days−$845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,894
world 0% −$37
other 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -34.4% -40.7% 33% 33% -16.7%
≤30d 32 -32.2% -38.7% 34% 34% -23.1%
≤90d 157 -21.0% -28.5% 36% 35% -29.5%
all 291 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 40% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 40% -19.0%
10% -20.2% 39% -26.8%
15% -27.9% 37% -33.9%
20% -34.9% 33% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$174 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$5,836
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses123 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions1
Markets (closed)291 / 292
History coverage302d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Yes 38¢ 2¢ $40 $2 −$37 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $80 +$78 +97%
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $230 +$37 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $122 +$101 +83%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $136 −$133 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $680 −$677 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $398 +$397 +100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $301 +$71 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $273 −$273 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $312 −$310 -99%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $51 +$114 +226%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $453 +$776 +171%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $113 −$112 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $235 −$234 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $89 −$87 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $409 −$409 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $80 +$16 +20%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $119 −$118 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $426 +$265 +62%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $269 +$306 +114%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $235 −$235 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $68 +$42 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $279 −$279 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $221 −$217 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 13 $168 −$165 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $809 −$794 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $135 −$133 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winne May 12 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 12 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 12 $117 −$117 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 1 Winner May 12 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 12 $116 −$116 -100%
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) May 12 $288 −$288 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Apr 30 $137 +$118 +86%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $488 +$167 +34%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $891 +$795 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Eternal Fire 50¢ $80 6h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $2 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $3 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $7 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $15 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $15 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $8 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $14 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $29 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $9 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $14 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $13 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $6 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $17 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $43 8h
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $35 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $122 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $35 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $33 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 45¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 45¢ $22 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 45¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 45¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 45¢ $18 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $59 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $26 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $26 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $136 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.47 · official $2.42 (match) · 1121 history records