Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
24 0x24e8…7d2d crypto 65 markets active 19h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55 (+31%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$8
other 27% −$3
sports 10% +$10
politics 3% +$53
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +25.3% +13.4% 45% 41% +20.2%
≤30d 28 +12.9% +2.2% 46% 43% -2.2%
≤90d 62 +12.1% +1.4% 55% 39% +19.2%
all 62 +12.1% +1.4% 55% 39% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 39% +19.2%
10% -8.3% 34% +7.8%
15% -17.2% 26% -2.6%
20% -25.3% 23% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage47d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +180%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$11 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 20 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 13 $12 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 11 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 11 $6 $0 +4%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $1 $0 +29%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 04 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 04 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 04 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 04 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 04 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 04 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 04 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 04 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $1 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $1 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $3 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 27d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.84 · official $2.84 (match) · 173 history records