Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24e6…2f20 sports 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$414 (-17%) realized −$314 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate67%51W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$275
14 days−$253
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$534
crypto 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -27.0% -34.0% 47% 47% -70.3%
≤30d 49 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 65% -47.4%
≤90d 76 -0.6% -10.1% 67% 66% -27.8%
all 76 -0.6% -10.1% 67% 66% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 66% -27.8%
10% -18.7% 58% -34.7%
15% -26.5% 41% -41.0%
20% -33.7% 20% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$34 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$314
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses51 / 25
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage56d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 91¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$7 -33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $41 +$16 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $55 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $38 −$18 -47%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 +$2 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 +$8 +113%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $4 +$3 +70%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 26 $16 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $81 −$75 -93%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 23 $8 +$7 +91%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $70 +$11 +16%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $20 −$10 -49%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $54 +$16 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $29 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 28m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $12 30m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 91¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 67¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $10 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 80¢ $57 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $41 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $55 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 89¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 66¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 175 history records