Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24e6…1dcb politics 99 markets active 3h ago coverage 672d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$699 (-13%) realized −$461 · open −$238
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%23W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$189
politics 32% +$10
world 13% +$83
sports 3% −$133
tech 3% +$13
crypto 2% −$26
economics 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +30.1% +17.7% 50% 50% -1.9%
≤90d 2 +30.1% +17.7% 50% 50% -1.9%
all 96 -33.5% -39.9% 24% 22% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 22% -8.7%
10% -45.6% 18% -17.4%
15% -50.9% 18% -25.4%
20% -55.7% 15% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$15 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

672d coverage
Net worth$920
Realized−$461
Unrealized−$238
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses23 / 73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage672d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,073 $832 −$241 (-22%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $85 $88 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $57 +$60 +106%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $102 −$46 -45%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $74 +$11 +15%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 08 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $35 −$25 -72%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) Feb 28 $100 −$84 -84%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Feb 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $9 $0 +6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $20 −$1 -5%
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$7 +138%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$133 +133%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $57 +$147 +258%
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 04 $44 −$18 -42%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 02 $16 −$8 -48%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 01 $13 −$10 -74%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 01 $11 −$9 -81%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 01 $40 −$24 -60%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 01 $10 −$7 -70%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 1PM ET Jan 31 $6 −$5 -80%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $61 −$25 -42%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Jan 31 $7 −$3 -52%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Jan 31 $13 −$8 -58%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)? Jan 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? Jan 29 $5 −$3 -51%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 29 $14 −$4 -26%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jan 29 $10 −$8 -76%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 5.0-6.0%? Jan 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)? Jan 29 $8 −$8 -94%
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? Jan 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 26 $10 −$6 -61%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $30 −$22 -74%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $11 +$59 +525%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Jan 25 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $10 −$3 -30%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House Nov 17 $199 −$122 -61%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 06 $50 +$42 +83%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $717 +$535 +75%
Will Trump win 5 swing states? Nov 06 $50 −$49 -99%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Nov 06 $519 −$355 -68%
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election? Nov 04 $83 +$16 +19%
Caroline Ellison sentenced to 12-23 months in prison? Sep 21 $2 $0 -21%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Sep 21 $2 −$1 -41%
US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024? Sep 21 $6 −$2 -36%
Solana all time high in Q4? Sep 21 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $677 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND W BUY 15¢ $116 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 48¢ $57 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 22¢ $56 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,092 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $795 13d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $87 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 38¢ $102 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 13d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $57 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $47 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 105d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 112d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 112d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) SELL West Ham United FC 9¢ $5 112d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) SELL West Ham United FC 14¢ $11 112d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) SELL West Ham United FC 1¢ $1 112d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 112d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 112d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 112d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 112d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? SELL Yes 57¢ $19 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $204 112d
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 113d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 113d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 113d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) BUY West Ham United FC 77¢ $100 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $920.11 · official $973.76 · 294 history records