Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24e4…309e crypto 34 markets active 12d ago coverage 163d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,355 (-50%) realized −$25,355 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%3W / 38L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,492per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,711
7 days−$2,711
14 days−$2,724
30 days−$9,321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$24,923
world 39% −$1,921
other 5% −$2,553
sports 2% +$570
tech 1% −$231
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-71.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -87.5% -88.7% 0% 0% -82.8%
≤30d 11 -89.4% -90.4% 0% 0% -85.0%
≤90d 19 -49.6% -54.4% 11% 11% -39.0%
all 41 -68.5% -71.5% 7% 7% -63.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.5% 7% -63.7%
10% -74.3% 7% -67.2%
15% ← realistic here -76.7% 5% -70.4%
20% -79.0% 5% -73.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$1,294) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -87% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
100.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,297 vs −$939 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25,355
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses3 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 34
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$1,492
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $737 −$737 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $1,226 −$1,226 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $1,079 −$480 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $110 −$75 -68%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,569 −$2,541 -99%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,256 −$3,032 -71%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,065 −$1,025 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 25 $117 −$109 -94%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $527 −$15 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $3,623 −$199 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? May 18 $537 −$231 -43%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? May 17 $1,000 −$200 -20%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $4 −$4 -96%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $652 +$585 +90%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1,460 +$3,269 +224%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 13 $9,680 −$1,760 -18%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 06 $1,294 −$1,294 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 06 $2,045 −$2,045 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 06 $783 −$609 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 06 $660 −$660 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 06 $1,024 −$1,023 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 05 $591 −$591 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 05 $1,202 +$38 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 05 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 05 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $226 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 05 $485 −$485 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 05 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 05 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 05 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 05 $438 −$438 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 05 $3,398 −$3,394 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 04 $4,245 −$4,235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 04 $1,169 −$1,168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 04 $3,584 −$3,582 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 04 $3,061 −$3,274 -107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $176 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $47 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $180 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $91 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records