Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

24 0x24e4…e545 world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown75%max

Avg bet$373per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-0.8%	-10.3%	0%	0%	-10.4%
≤30d	4	+0.3%	-9.2%	25%	0%	-9.2%
≤90d	4	+0.3%	-9.2%	25%	0%	-9.2%
all	4	+0.3%	-9.2%	25%	0%	-9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.2%	0%	-9.2%
10%	-17.9%	0%	-17.9%
15%	-25.9%	0%	-25.8%
20%	-33.1%	0%	-33.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$5 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.39 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$18

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage9d

Avg bet$373

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown75%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?	Jun 22	$456	−$5	-1%
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	Jun 22	$190	−$1	-1%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$419	+$21	+5%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	Jun 13	$428	−$9	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?	SELL No	87¢	$451	26m
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?	BUY No	88¢	$456	1h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	SELL No	86¢	$189	2h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	BUY No	86¢	$190	3h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland?	BUY No	95¢	$419	9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	SELL No	92¢	$411	9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	SELL No	91¢	$7	9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	BUY No	94¢	$428	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records