Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x24e3…b980 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+1%) realized +$113 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate100%37W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$72
crypto 42% +$13
tech 7% +$28
politics 3% +$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 13% -7.5%
≤90d 28 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 7% -8.6%
all 37 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -8.8%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$589) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses37 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage137d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $93 $99 +$6 (+7%)
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? Jun 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $267 +$3 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $133 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $145 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $145 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 5? Jun 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $121 +$20 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $227 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $97 +$13 +13%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $347 +$2 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of May 22 $156 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of May 18 May 22 $188 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? May 18 $339 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $339 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $340 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $340 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May May 01 $339 +$3 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $892 +$16 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on April 10? Apr 11 $345 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 10? Apr 11 $545 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $886 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $889 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 06 $856 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 3? Mar 04 $852 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $848 +$3 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 01 $860 +$3 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 February 9-15? Feb 17 $839 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 9? Feb 10 $644 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 09 $162 +$12 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 February 2-8? Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8? Feb 09 $589 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 08 $498 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $92 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 7d
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $267 11d
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $145 14d
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $133 16d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? BUY No 93¢ $93 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $116 20d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $145 20d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $157 22d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 22d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $121 22d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $110 22d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $97 22d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $336 32d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 32d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of May 18 BUY No 99¢ $89 36d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of May 18 BUY No 99¢ $99 36d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $156 37d
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $339 43d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $339 45d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $340 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.53 · official $381.53 (match) · 100 history records