Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x24dc…f26d other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$26
politics 14% −$3
sports 6% −$2
economics 6% −$1
world 3% $0
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 9% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 71 -4.6% -13.6% 6% 4% -9.7%
all 71 -4.6% -13.6% 6% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.9% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 67
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage80d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $62 $63 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $256 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $513 −$1 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $45 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $259 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $412 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $222 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $227 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $432 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $478 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $458 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $238 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $236 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 09 $239 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $233 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 09 $230 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $109 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 20d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $49 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $62 21d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 23d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $45 26d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $45 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 27d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 27d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $3 27d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 28d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $211 32d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $211 33d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $230 33d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $230 33d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $231 34d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $232 34d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $227 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.61 · official $171.61 (match) · 198 history records