Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24db…50ba other 25 markets active 23h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$402 (+3%) realized −$767 · open +$1,169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$10,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$836
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -17.1% -25.0% 8% 8% -18.0%
≤30d 12 -17.1% -25.0% 8% 8% -18.0%
≤90d 12 -17.1% -25.0% 8% 8% -18.0%
all 12 -17.1% -25.0% 8% 8% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 8% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 8% -25.9%
15% -38.8% 8% -33.0%
20% -44.8% 8% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10,320
Realized−$767
Unrealized+$1,169
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)12 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$524
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 34¢ 37¢ $5,143 $5,626 +$483 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $3,979 $4,665 +$686 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will United States win on 2026-07-01 Jun 26 $100 −$18 -18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 26 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $305 −$23 -8%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $101 −$16 -16%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,217 −$165 -14%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $506 −$40 -8%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $202 −$7 -3%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,010 −$58 -6%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +167%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $82 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will United States win on 2026-07-01 SELL 19¢ $82 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $98 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $97 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $281 22h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $282 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $88 23h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $86 23h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 39¢ $855 23h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $857 23h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 33¢ $231 23h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $231 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $235 23h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $235 23h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 33¢ $194 23h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $195 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 23h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $197 23h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $194 23h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 33¢ $947 23h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $952 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 23h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 23h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,217 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,320.18 · official $10,346.45 (match) · 64 history records