Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24da…0b29
world · 101 markets active 1h ago
10.0score
+$8,078 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,233 · open +$840
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,691
Realized+$7,233
Unrealized+$840
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses62 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)88 / 101
History coverage151d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 13 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$674
14 days+$1,009
30 days+$1,835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 65¢ 71¢ $1,650 $1,796 +$146 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 77¢ 99¢ $953 $1,224 +$272 (+29%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 71¢ 99¢ $590 $819 +$229 (+39%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $747 $752 +$4 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $313 $332 +$20 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 78¢ 100¢ $166 $211 +$46 (+28%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 67¢ 99¢ $124 $184 +$60 (+48%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $123 $129 +$6 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 55¢ 98¢ $38 $67 +$29 (+76%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 78¢ 99¢ $48 $62 +$13 (+27%)
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? No 72¢ 77¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No 77¢ 97¢ $38 $49 +$10 (+26%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $76 +$26 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,110 +$648 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,064 +$336 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,416 +$784 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 26 $273 +$27 +10%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $31 +$16 +51%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? May 02 $1,021 +$209 +20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $609 +$391 +64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $467 +$574 +123%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $1,472 +$505 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $1,519 +$1,099 +72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $1,445 −$104 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $143 +$127 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $640 +$220 +34%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $473 +$109 +23%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Apr 21 $21 +$22 +106%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $304 +$92 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $182 +$77 +42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $57 −$34 -60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $87 +$54 +62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $259 +$194 +75%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $126 +$12 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $2,152 +$398 +18%
Will Trump name "Kamala" in April? Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 03 $80 +$21 +26%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $1,431 −$1,056 -74%
Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $201 +$99 +49%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $884 −$834 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $56 +$44 +79%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $43 +$65 +151%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Apr 01 $201 +$35 +18%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $711 +$847 +119%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1,348 +$1,412 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Mar 27 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21? Mar 25 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31? Mar 25 $70 −$70 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Mar 25 $315 +$389 +124%
Will Trump say "Somalia" or "Somalian" during the Detroit speech on Tu Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Mar 25 $750 −$750 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Mar 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Wife" during WEF Address on January 21? Mar 25 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Mar 25 $287 −$287 -100%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $1,751 +$224 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 59% +$5,413
finance 18% +$3,172
politics 8% −$67
sports 6% +$512
other 5% +$88
culture 2% −$750
crypto 1% −$316
tech 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $60 30m
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $56 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $447 59m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 75¢ $30 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 87¢ $88 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 6h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? BUY No 72¢ $51 6h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $747 9h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $232 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $38 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 74¢ $76 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $852 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1,064 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $8 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $157 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $945 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $258 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $93 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +46.2% +32.3% 100% 100% +41.9%
≤30d 7 +16.7% +5.6% 86% 71% +23.9%
≤90d 50 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 58% +8.6%
all 88 +11.3% +0.7% 70% 59% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 59% +7.9%
10% -9.0% 50% -2.5%
15% -17.8% 35% -11.9%
20% -25.8% 28% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,691.07 · official $5,691.09 (match) · 474 history records