Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24d9…5310 crypto 13 markets active 19d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-30%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% $0
crypto 49% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -47.0% -52.0% 23% 23% -38.4%
≤90d 13 -47.0% -52.0% 23% 23% -38.4%
all 13 -47.0% -52.0% 23% 23% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.0% 23% -38.4%
10% -56.6% 23% -44.3%
15% -60.8% 23% -49.7%
20% -64.6% 15% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $15 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -70%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$17 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $17 −$17 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $11 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $14 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $15 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $33 19d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $15 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $2 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $15 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records