trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | $48 | $48 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $47 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $28 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Sep 09 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Aug 10 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? | Aug 02 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 | Aug 02 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 01 | $68 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? | Aug 01 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? | Aug 01 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? | Aug 01 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? | Aug 01 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jul 31 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | Jul 31 | $48 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture Udachne before August? | Jul 31 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jul 31 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? | Jul 31 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jul 30 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jul 30 | $65 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Jul 30 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 30 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Jul 30 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jul 29 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jul 29 | $65 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? | Jul 29 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 29 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jul 29 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jul 29 | $64 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 29 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| all | 28 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 21% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.5% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.2% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -26.1% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 0% | -33.4% |