Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x24d8…542a other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,614 (-2%) realized −$1,614 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$807per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$12
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$1,474
politics 33% −$20
sports 6% −$124
economics 3% −$2
world 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -2.3% -11.6% 5% 0% -11.6%
all 130 +1.8% -7.9% 20% 12% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 12% -10.9%
10% -16.7% 12% -19.4%
15% -24.8% 10% -27.2%
20% -32.2% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,212) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$751
Realized−$1,614
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage162d
Avg bet$807
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $540 $540 −$0 (-0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $212 $212 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $226 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,935 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,630 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $800 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $855 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,595 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $201 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $404 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,711 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,612 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $2,952 −$3 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,579 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $845 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,383 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,335 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,800 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,982 −$3 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,671 −$3 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 12 $1,441 −$1,441 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,825 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 2h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $232 3h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $271 43h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $272 44h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $226 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $226 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $218 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $218 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $359 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $360 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $540 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $854 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $855 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $728 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $729 13d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $761 13d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $762 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $899 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $900 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $785 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $787 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $666 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $667 15d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $799 18d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $800 18d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $768 19d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $770 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.46 · official $751.46 (match) · 433 history records