Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24d4…4e1d
sports · 376 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$18,890 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18,645 · open −$245
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,005
Realized−$18,645
Unrealized−$245
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses171 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,995
Open positions2
Markets (closed)374 / 376
History coverage131d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 374 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$4,903
14 days−$9,246
30 days−$16,112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Team Heretics Academy (+1.5) Team Heretics Academy 70¢ 50¢ $1,000 $714 −$286 (-29%)
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Misa Esports 44¢ 51¢ $250 $290 +$40 (+16%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Top Esports Challenger 16¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp Blue (+1.5) Karmine Corp Blue 39¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 48¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 65¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $800 $0 −$800 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) Gen.G Global Academy 47¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs LOUD 49¢ 0¢ $1,178 $0 −$1,178 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp Blue 41¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Game Handicap: EST (-2.5) vs RED Academy (+2.5) RED Academy 48¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 31¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) JD Gaming 65¢ 0¢ $303 $0 −$303 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 46¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Team Secret Whales 66¢ 0¢ $1,550 $0 −$1,550 (-100%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Misa Esports 70¢ 0¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Ozarox Esports 55¢ 0¢ $337 $0 −$337 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 26¢ 0¢ $395 $0 −$395 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $819 −$800 -98%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $274 +$292 +106%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $553 +$252 +46%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $584 +$266 +46%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $2,581 −$2,544 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $814 +$1,047 +129%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $519 +$774 +149%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $279 +$166 +60%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $279 +$166 +60%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $448 +$680 +152%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,559 −$1,536 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 11 $507 −$500 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $282 −$280 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $282 −$280 -99%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $335 +$325 +97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $508 −$500 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $285 +$404 +142%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $167 +$144 +86%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 10 $566 +$468 +83%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $272 +$103 +38%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $284 +$244 +86%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $272 +$98 +36%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $558 −$550 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $327 −$320 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $164 −$160 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 10 $811 −$800 -99%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $51 −$50 -97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $304 +$296 +97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $1,522 +$1,363 +90%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $609 −$600 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 10 $406 +$444 +109%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $659 +$502 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $590 −$580 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $287 −$283 -98%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $286 −$280 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $133 −$130 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $277 −$270 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $277 −$270 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $1,217 +$1,045 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $660 +$665 +101%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 08 $610 −$600 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 08 $761 +$715 +94%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $304 −$300 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $2,270 −$2,240 -99%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Jun 07 $816 −$800 -98%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $841 +$693 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$19,107
crypto 0% −$2
other 0% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) BUY Misa Esports 44¢ $254 1h
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Team Heretics Academy (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 70¢ $1,009 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $203 15h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $409 18h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $409 18h
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) SELL Karmine Corp Blue 100¢ $162 19h
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) SELL Karmine Corp Blue 100¢ $404 19h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 100¢ $805 19h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 100¢ $849 19h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 68¢ $293 24h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 68¢ $291 24h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $410 24h
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp Blue 48¢ $274 24h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 68¢ $262 24h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 68¢ $291 24h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $954 25h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $1,218 25h
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) BUY Misa Esports 50¢ $203 2d
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) BUY Misa Esports 50¢ $274 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) BUY Indiana Fever 53¢ $507 2d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 62¢ $279 2d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 62¢ $279 2d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 40¢ $255 2d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 39¢ $265 2d
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) BUY Misa Esports 50¢ $284 2d
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) BUY Misa Esports 51¢ $267 2d
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) BUY Misa Esports 51¢ $267 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $264 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $275 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $275 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 49% -22.9%
≤30d 164 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 45% -24.7%
≤90d 323 -7.9% -16.6% 44% 44% -20.7%
all 374 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 43% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 43% -20.7%
10% -23.6% 43% -28.3%
15% -31.0% 42% -35.2%
20% -37.8% 37% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,004.52 · official $1,004.52 (match) · 690 history records