trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -15.2% | -23.3% | 20% | 20% | -18.9% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +12.1% | +1.4% | 44% | 44% | +20.6% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +18.9% | +7.6% | 50% | 50% | +25.7% |
| all | 36 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 42% | 42% | +12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.6% | 42% | +12.9% |
| 10% | -18.3% | 42% | +2.1% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 33% | -7.8% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 25% | -16.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 13¢ | $200 | $224 | +$24 (+12%) |
| Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? | No | 49¢ | 70¢ | $100 | $144 | +$44 (+44%) |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $100 | $103 | +$3 (+3%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 10¢ | $100 | $59 | −$41 (-41%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | Yes | 57¢ | 9¢ | $25 | $4 | −$21 (-84%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 23 | $397 | −$10 | -2% |
| Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 | Jun 23 | $25 | +$16 | +64% |
| Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac | Jun 22 | $51 | −$51 | -99% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $26 | −$2 | -7% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $26 | −$8 | -32% |
| Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $26 | +$93 | +365% |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 15 | $25 | −$25 | -99% |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 | Jun 15 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $26 | +$26 | +100% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $61 | +$25 | +41% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $26 | −$25 | -97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $51 | +$28 | +55% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 05 | $50 | −$50 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $51 | +$65 | +129% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 31 | $288 | +$217 | +75% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $219 | +$282 | +129% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 27 | $133 | −$84 | -63% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 23 | $99 | +$113 | +114% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 21 | $101 | +$46 | +46% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Mar 03 | $169 | +$176 | +104% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 30 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Jan 30 | $40 | −$9 | -22% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 30 | $55 | −$6 | -11% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 29 | $50 | −$3 | -6% |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Jan 29 | $170 | +$50 | +30% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 19 | $30 | −$1 | -3% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 19 | $20 | −$13 | -65% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 27 | $50 | +$16 | +32% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | May 23 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | May 23 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 23 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Liberals win majority in Canadian election? | Apr 30 | $40 | +$20 | +49% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 23 | $20 | −$19 | -96% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 22 | $10 | −$2 | -16% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | Apr 21 | $20 | +$5 | +25% |