Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24d3…6468 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%34W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$4
14 days+$12
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$38
sports 38% −$55
crypto 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -19.4% -27.0% 42% 42% -7.1%
≤30d 74 -12.3% -20.6% 39% 36% -12.7%
≤90d 83 -10.8% -19.3% 41% 39% -12.3%
all 83 -10.8% -19.3% 41% 39% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 39% -12.3%
10% -27.0% 36% -20.7%
15% -34.0% 36% -28.4%
20% -40.5% 25% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses34 / 49
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)83 / 93
History coverage35d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 68¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+37%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 51¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$8 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 +$4 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 −$10 -52%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $41 −$3 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -8%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 05 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$7 +70%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Slovakia (-1.5) Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) May 31 $10 +$5 +46%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 May 31 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) May 31 $15 +$6 +37%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Poland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score May 31 $10 −$1 -10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) May 31 $20 +$13 +64%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score May 31 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 +$19 +123%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $10 +$6 +57%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 May 30 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $5 38m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 30h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $9 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $61 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 4d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $16 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 49¢ $8 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 57¢ $10 7d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.33 · official $223.69 (match) · 201 history records