Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24cf…b870 weather 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$135 (-2%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$4
weather 17% +$1
economics 10% −$1
world 3% +$1
sports 2% −$264
other 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 8 -12.5% -20.8% 62% 0% -15.1%
all 31 -3.0% -12.3% 74% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -11.4%
10% -20.7% 0% -19.9%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$34 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage175d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 51°F or below on May May 26 $192 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Heat May 18 $132 −$264 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on April 24 May 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 9? Apr 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on April Apr 23 $173 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $717 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C or below on March 28? Mar 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 16? Mar 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Mar 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $781 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on March 6? Mar 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 4? Mar 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $486 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $180 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in February? Feb 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 27 $689 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 40°F or higher on February Feb 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James be a 2026 NBA All-Star? Feb 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February Feb 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 48-49°F on February Feb 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $22 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on February 4? Feb 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on February 4? Feb 23 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 01 $29 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 01 $129 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $179 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 51°F or below on May BUY No 100¢ $192 28d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on April 24 BUY No 100¢ $80 60d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on April BUY No 100¢ $173 75d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $113 76d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $717 82d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $717 83d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C or below on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $116 87d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $626 88d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $626 89d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $600 94d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $601 95d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $549 97d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $550 97d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $36 100d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $781 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $781 103d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $479 105d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $480 106d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $54 110d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $52 112d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $485 113d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $486 114d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $180 115d
Rockets vs. Heat BUY Rockets 60¢ $132 115d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 98¢ $688 115d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $689 116d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 118d
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.20 · official $371.20 (match) · 85 history records