Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24cb…010d other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,471 (+1%) realized +$1,471 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,232per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$17
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$10
politics 39% −$57
sports 8% +$1,515
economics 2% +$1
world 2% −$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 +2.1% -7.6% 6% 2% -8.0%
all 100 -2.1% -11.5% 9% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -8.4%
10% -19.9% 6% -17.2%
15% -27.7% 6% -25.2%
20% -34.8% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,532) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$7 · ×33.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,509
Realized+$1,471
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage108d
Avg bet$1,232
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $849 $849 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $660 $661 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $324 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $602 +$3 +1%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,041 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $856 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,997 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,408 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $721 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $333 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $636 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,344 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3,056 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $2,703 −$4 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,566 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,337 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,344 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,359 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,622 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,371 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,936 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,678 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $2,067 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,474 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,462 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,328 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2,906 −$3 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 07 $55 $0 +0%
Stars vs. Flyers Apr 07 $1,277 +$1,838 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $849 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $314 21h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $314 22h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $324 24h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $324 25h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $276 27h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $277 29h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $661 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $678 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $679 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $826 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $827 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $749 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $750 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $854 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $856 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $739 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $740 10d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $905 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $906 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $870 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $871 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $720 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $721 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $711 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $712 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $911 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $913 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $805 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $806 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,509.40 · official $1,509.40 (match) · 326 history records