Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24c8…23e1
other · 69 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$23,540 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$32,775 · open −$136,121
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$737,055
Realized+$32,775
Unrealized−$136,121
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Open positions171
Markets (closed)60 / 69
History coverage4d
Avg bet$52,812
Trades / day959.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 171 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32,562
7 days+$32,775
14 days+$32,775
30 days+$32,775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 66¢ $210,000 $277,410 +$67,410 (+32%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $210,000 $142,590 −$67,410 (-32%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $88,907 $89,451 +$544 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 68¢ 99¢ $19,424 $28,323 +$8,898 (+46%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $25,656 $25,470 −$186 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $13,018 $13,026 +$8 (+0%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 78¢ 82¢ $10,759 $11,367 +$608 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $927 $9,423 +$8,497 (+917%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $926 $8,917 +$7,991 (+863%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $1,408 $7,139 +$5,731 (+407%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 61¢ 96¢ $4,383 $6,870 +$2,487 (+57%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $1,038 $6,506 +$5,469 (+527%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,192 $6,195 +$3 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $3,617 $5,722 +$2,105 (+58%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $1,038 $5,323 +$4,286 (+413%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $4,377 $4,936 +$560 (+13%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $4,140 $4,171 +$31 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $4,159 $4,161 +$2 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $4,055 $3,978 −$77 (-2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,286 $3,305 +$18 (+1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,132 $3,220 +$87 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $3,223 $3,031 −$192 (-6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $2,697 $3,004 +$307 (+11%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $2,553 $2,656 +$103 (+4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 36¢ 60¢ $1,504 $2,518 +$1,014 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,334 −$2,334 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 12 $490 −$988 -202%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 12 $122 +$190 +155%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $392 −$8,795 -2244%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 12 $59 +$1,849 +3125%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $75 +$4,476 +5936%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $11,887 −$2,628 -22%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 12 $198 −$198 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 12 $149 +$5,089 +3420%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 12 $88 +$1,225 +1385%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 12 $431 −$1,553 -361%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 12 $88 +$6,407 +7321%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 12 $965 +$813 +84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 12 $45 +$826 +1847%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,334 −$2,334 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$39,106 +39183%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$8,337 +80670%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $5,352 −$7,288 -136%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $173 −$173 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 68% −$67,249
other 19% −$87,197
world 9% +$41,998
economics 3% −$27,580
crypto 1% +$333
finance 0% +$2,011
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,737 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $190 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $147 2m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $8 6m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 7m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $333 7m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $829 8m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $893 9m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 11m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 11m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $201 12m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $431 12m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 13m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 14m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $210 15m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $114 16m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $8,412 22m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 31m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 31m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 32m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $675 32m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 35m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 36m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 38m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 38m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $253 38m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 38m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+192.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +223.0% +192.2% 25% 25% -14.2%
≤30d 60 +223.0% +192.2% 25% 25% -14.2%
≤90d 60 +223.0% +192.2% 25% 25% -14.2%
all 60 +223.0% +192.2% 25% 25% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover959.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +192.2% 25% -14.2%
10% +164.3% 23% -22.4%
15% ← realistic here +138.7% 22% -29.9%
20% +115.3% 22% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737,054.87 · official $736,989.22 (match) · 3500 history records