Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24c5…9f83 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$192 (+13%) realized +$177 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$89
other 49% +$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -22.7% -30.1% 44% 31% +16.3%
≤30d 16 -22.7% -30.1% 44% 31% +16.3%
≤90d 16 -22.7% -30.1% 44% 31% +16.3%
all 16 -22.7% -30.1% 44% 31% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 31% +16.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 31% +5.2%
15% -42.9% 25% -5.0%
20% -48.5% 6% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$23 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$177
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 63¢ 100¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $88 +$139 +158%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$32 +50%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $16 −$11 -68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $67 +$21 +31%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$6 -27%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $568 +$264 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$20 -90%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $106 −$79 -75%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $113 +$45 +40%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $63 −$10 -15%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $115 +$3 +3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $106 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $19 −$13 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $25 49m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 93¢ $60 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 95¢ $62 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $104 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $88 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $65 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $5 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $9 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $28 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $39 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 13h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 15h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $80 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $155 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.66 · official $39.66 (match) · 61 history records