Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24c3…f5d8
crypto · 103 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$141 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$139 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses33 / 68
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage165d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 2 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 46¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $27 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$15 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$152
other 15% −$1
sports 4% +$22
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +10.4% -0.2% 35% 19% -15.8%
≤30d 79 +10.4% -0.2% 35% 19% -15.8%
≤90d 85 +18.7% +7.4% 35% 20% -8.3%
all 101 +9.7% -0.7% 33% 18% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 18% -17.8%
10% -10.2% 14% -25.6%
15% -18.9% 7% -32.8%
20% -26.8% 5% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.45 · official $1.42 (match) · 600 history records