Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x24bd…d33b crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$183 (+9%) realized +$200 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$381
7 days+$352
14 days+$352
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$85
crypto 28% +$187
sports 22% +$58
weather 1% −$20
world 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +37.2% +24.1% 67% 67% +17.6%
≤30d 19 +29.9% +17.6% 63% 63% +13.3%
≤90d 52 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 42% +4.5%
all 52 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 42% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 42% +4.5%
10% -21.7% 40% -5.5%
15% -29.2% 38% -14.7%
20% -36.2% 29% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$26 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage43d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 62¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $61 +$44 +73%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 +$119 +388%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $41 +$20 +48%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $41 +$52 +127%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$32 +52%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $61 +$67 +109%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$3 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 +$51 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $80 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +64%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$43 -85%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $96 +$52 +54%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$91 -89%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$77 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 12 $95 −$93 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 11 $8 −$6 -74%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 11 $11 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 11 $89 +$329 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 11 $61 +$29 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 11 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 11 $20 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 11 $14 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 11 $63 −$25 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 11 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 11 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 11 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 11 $6 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $105 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $61 4h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $92 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $41 20h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 43¢ $41 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $61 21h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $61 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $68 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $89 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $80 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 7¢ $8 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $56 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $96 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $218 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $141 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $45 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.33 · official $83.33 (match) · 102 history records