Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24bb…2f07 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 30% −$3
politics 8% +$2
crypto 7% +$2
finance 3% $0
sports 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 11% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 20% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 18% 5% -9.7%
all 63 -3.0% -12.3% 37% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage467d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $65 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +21%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $32 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $9 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $29 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 −$1 -37%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 28 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 3h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $36 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $36 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $33 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $14 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $17 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $18 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $32 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $4 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $6 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $29 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $34 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $34 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records