Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
24 0x24ba…3d59 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+3%) realized +$83 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate60%32W / 21L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 27% +$14
tech 25% +$43
other 18% +$20
weather 15% +$4
world 8% $0
politics 7% −$9
sports 1% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.1% -4.9% 80% 20% -10.4%
≤30d 10 +5.1% -4.9% 80% 20% -10.4%
≤90d 35 +8.9% -1.4% 80% 40% -9.0%
all 53 -12.6% -20.9% 60% 34% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 34% -7.1%
10% -28.5% 25% -16.0%
15% -35.4% 19% -24.1%
20% -41.8% 13% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses32 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage100d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Yes 100¢ 96¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $103 −$7 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 12? Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-13? Jun 19 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 12? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs VfB eSports (BO3) - Prime League 1st Di Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? Jun 19 $110 +$1 +1%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Fiona Ferro vs Sorana Cirstea May 12 $1 $0 +14%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Shuai Zhang vs Linda Noskova May 12 $1 $0 +16%
Marozsan vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 22.5 May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 12 $431 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $444 −$4 -1%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 15 $134 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on Mar Apr 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of March? Mar 26 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 26 $1 $0 +32%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 26 $1 $0 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 26 $1 $0 +35%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-19? Mar 26 $1 $0 +41%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-19? Mar 26 $1 $0 +45%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-03-18? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +61%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +61%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +63%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 16? Mar 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or below on March Mar 26 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-19? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-19? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-03-19? Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 16 $213 +$36 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 13 $30 +$13 +43%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $30 +$34 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $250 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $13 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 38¢ $98 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $96 2h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 37¢ $99 38d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 38d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 38d
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 38d
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 38d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs VfB eSports (BO3) - Prime League 1st Di BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 91¢ $5 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 38d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Racing Club de Lens 73¢ $5 38d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 38d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $431 65d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Shuai Zhang vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 86¢ $1 65d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Fiona Ferro vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Sorana Cirstea 87¢ $1 65d
Marozsan vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $440 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.94 · official $420.94 (match) · 140 history records