Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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24 0x24b9…bcb1 crypto 1216 markets active 0h ago coverage 384d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 384d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,507 (-22%) realized −$24,428 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%459W / 753L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$581
14 days−$3,668
30 days−$3,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$11,892
sports 23% −$4,504
other 0% −$213
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +10.5% +0.0% 36% 30% -20.9%
≤30d 218 -12.1% -20.4% 31% 28% -31.2%
≤90d 621 -39.1% -44.9% 26% 22% -43.7%
all 1212 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 31% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 31% -23.1%
10% -34.8% 26% -30.5%
15% -41.1% 20% -37.2%
20% -46.9% 16% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$51 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

384d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$24,428
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses459 / 753
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1212 / 1216
History coverage384d ⚠
Avg bet$92
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $139 +$29 +21%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $40 −$36 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$48 +897%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $12 −$10 -83%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $16 +$30 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $74 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $181 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$24 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $194 −$184 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $137 +$113 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $171 +$247 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$98 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $184 −$8 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $158 +$35 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $92 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $127 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $230 +$73 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$32 +31%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $77 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $312 −$57 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $137 +$122 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$62 +91%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $47 +$21 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $84 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$100 -94%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $63 +$14 +22%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $64 −$61 -95%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $12 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 9¢ $28 1m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 9¢ $20 6m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 15¢ $17 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 18m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 27¢ $81 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $49 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 25m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 18¢ $56 29m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 32m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 32m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 1¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $110 41m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 23¢ $59 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $83 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $33 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $34 45m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 17¢ $46 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $53 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 11¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Toronto Tempo 2¢ $2 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 44¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $42 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 11¢ $12 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 15¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $67 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.69 · official $30.73 (match) · 3500 history records