Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24b8…6932 world 33 markets active 1d ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$6
other 24% −$4
crypto 5% $0
politics 3% −$5
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +22.2% +10.6% 62% 12% -8.3%
≤30d 14 +13.2% +2.4% 64% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 14 +13.2% +2.4% 64% 7% -8.5%
all 33 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 6% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage452d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +174%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $58 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $36 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $40 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $2 $0 -13%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 25 $3 $0 +17%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 19 $11 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 29h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $18 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $37 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $37 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records