Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24b7…4a73 crypto 799 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (588 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,393 (-68%) realized −$18,314 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%394W / 404L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day587.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,456
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (588 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 798 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 49% -17.5%
≤30d 798 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 49% -17.5%
≤90d 798 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 49% -17.5%
all 798 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 49% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover587.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 49% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 49% -25.4%
15% -28.1% 49% -32.6%
20% -35.2% 48% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$34 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$18,314
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses394 / 404
Open positions1
Markets (closed)798 / 799
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day587.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 798 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 48¢ 16¢ $120 $41 −$79 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$20 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$26 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$28 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$24 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$91 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $24 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $23 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $46 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $14 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.25 · official $181.25 · 3500 history records