Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24b7…d91b other 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%21W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$3
other 27% +$2
politics 13% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +2.1% -7.6% 25% 25% -11.1%
≤90d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 12% -10.9%
all 65 +0.4% -9.1% 32% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses21 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage464d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $64 −$3 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $29 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $31 −$2 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $31 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 19 $7 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $1 $0 -5%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $21 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on August 15? Aug 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 17m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $28 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $29 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $26 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $20 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $9 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $28 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $31 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $1 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $30 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $23 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $8 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $31 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $4 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $27 32d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $33 32d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $35 32d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 307d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 307d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 307d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $1 307d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 307d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $1 307d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records